These NBA Prospects Will Outplay Their Draft Spot!

One thing the Pacers and Thunder have shown us in the NBA Finals is the value of depth. Several standout players in the series were late draft picks or went undrafted — so who’s next?

For most NBA teams, the NBA Draft represents the cleanest and most accessible way to upgrade their rosters. Some -- the Lakers, Heat, and Knicks come to mind -- have inherent advantages unique to their franchises that make them an attractive destination for free agents. Others like Oklahoma City and Indianapolis are great in their own right, but are not free agent destinations. Given the Draft is every team’s best (and easiest) opportunity to upgrade, you’d think that by 2025, NBA team executives would have this down to a science. Yet still, the draft (especially outside of the Lottery) is basically a crapshoot. Teams can consume all the film, workouts, and background on a player that there can possibly be, and still not truly know what he will be in two years. 

Some of the NBA’s finest talents have been discovered in the later spots - look no further than the league’s best player, Nikola Jokic, being selected with the 41st pick, or Knicks star Jalen Brunson going 33rd overall after a storied college career. On June 25, teams will have their chance to find the next Jokic or Brunson - or if not Jokic or Brunson, perhaps more realistically their next Bruce Brown or Andrew Nembhard. Below are a few candidates we’ve identified in this draft class who can fill that void. 

ADOU THIERO, ARKANSAS

DOB: 05/08/2004 (21.1 Draft Age)

Stats: 15.1 PTS, 5.8 REB, 1.9 AST ; 55% FG / 26% 3PT / 69% FT

SHADES OF: OG Anunoby, Toumani Camara

+ ATHLETICISM, DEFENSE, SLASHING

- SHOOTING, CREATION

The sentiment surrounding Adou Thiero has been: IF Thiero had a consistent jumpshot, he would be a first round lock. While that IF is a BIG IF, I can set aside that IF given Thiero’s other attributes. Thiero is an exceptional athlete, a clear standout from others on the floor. He’s very active in passing lanes, constantly hunting steals and deflections, and contests shots well at the rim. Being a viable jumpshooter as a wing is key to long term staying power in the NBA - but in the case of Adou Thiero, the other strengths are so undeniable that he would be a steal for teams in the late first / early second. 

WILL RILEY, ILLINOIS

DOB: 02/10/2006 (19.3 Draft Age)

Stats: 12.6 PTS, 4.1 REB, 2.2 AST ; 43% FG / 33% 3PT / 72% FT

SHADES OF: Jordan Poole, Cam Johnson

+ SHOT CREATION, SCORING VARIETY, UNTAPPED POTENTIAL

- STRENGTH, DEFENSE, CONSISTENCY

Staying another year in college could’ve done Will Riley a lot of good - a native of Canada who only began playing basketball in the US as a junior in high school, Riley could still use plenty of refining in parts of his game. Still, the decision to enter is a defensible one - “strike while the iron is hot”, as they say. Riley’s potential as a versatile wing scorer is apparent - while you’d like his shooting numbers to be a little better, there’s no denying his shotmaking talents, especially in the mid-range. Few players at his age have shown such a varied repertoire. Concerns on his slight frame, defense, and streaky play may cause some teams to pass. Fit is key for Riley - whoever drafts him will need to give him plenty of chances to grow, whether that’s through spot minutes in the NBA, or giving him the keys in the G League. 

DRAKE POWELL, NORTH CAROLINA

DOB: 09/08/2005 (19.7 Draft Age)

Stats: 7.4 PTS, 3.4 REB, 1.1 AST ; 48% FG / 38% 3PT / 65% FT

SHADES OF: Taurean Prince, Isaac Okoro

+ NBA BODY / ATHLETE, 3+D POTENTIAL

- PRODUCTION, PASSIVITY, BALL HANDLING

Drafting low production in college can be a scary thing for an NBA team. If a player struggles to produce at a lower level, how will they produce against grown men in an 82 game season? Fortunately for Drake Powell, there are many aspects that go into drafting a player other than college success, as some players are better fits for the NBA game due to style of play and fit. Powell brings an elite high school pedigree (an attribute that has panned out for numerous failed college turned NBA success stories), an NBA ready frame and defensive capabilities, and a feathery shooting touch. There are plenty of raw aspects to his game that Powell will need to develop, but a player with this much potential is worth taking a swing on in the 20s.

JAMIR WATKINS, FLORIDA STATE

DOB: 07/06/2001 (23.9 Draft Age)

Stats: 18.4 PTS, 5.7 REB, 2.4 AST ; 43% FG / 32% 3PT / 75% FT

SHADES OF: Josh Richardson, Caris Levert

+ RELENTLESS ATTACKER, ROLE VERSATILITY

- AGE, SHOOTING UPSIDE, LACK OF ELITE TRAIT

Required to be a lead creator at Florida State, Jamir Watkins was a true swiss army knife for the Seminoles. Initially making his mark at VCU as a defensive ace, Watkins expanded parts of his game every season, finishing his college career with All-ACC honors. While he won’t be a lead creator in the NBA, skills he developed in this role should help Watkins succeed at the next level. Watkins was elite at attacking the rim (1st in the ACC in FTA), and brings enough to the table as a passer, scorer, and defender that there will be a spot for him at the next level.

RYAN NEMBHARD, GONZAGA

DOB: 03/10/2003 (22.3 Draft Age)

Stats: 10.5 PTS, 9.8 AST, 3.0 REB ; 45% FG / 40% 3PT / 77% FT

SHADES OF: Tyus Jones, TJ McConnell

+ BASKETBALL IQ, P&R MAESTRO

- LACK OF SCORING UPSIDE, ONE POSITION DEFENDER 

As the potential leader of a NBA second unit, teams would be hard-pressed to find a better floor general than Ryan Nembhard. At only 6’0”, Nembhard is limited defensively to guarding 1s, and a meager 10.5 points per game as a senior doesn’t show otherworldly scoring acumen. Yet, therein lies the beauty of Ryan Nembhard - self-awareness. Nembhard knows exactly what he isn’t, and more importantly, what he is. Few control the pace of the game better than Nembhard, an elite surveyor of the floor who can throw every pass in the book. While the ceiling may not be other-worldly, Ryan Nembhard will be a steal for a NBA team with his poise and playmaking ability.