Are NBA Scouts Overreacting to Ace Bailey's Shot-Selection? Greenlight Breaks Down the Potential Top-Pick

Potential top-three pick Ace Bailey dazzled in Rutgers' win over in-state rival Seton Hall. The 6'10" wing is ultra-talented, but his style of play seems to be dividing hoop-heads.

Ace Bailey’s shot-selection has drawn extensive criticism from NBA scouts throughout his freshman season. While the six-foot-ten, 18 year-old could certainly take easier looks, his efficiency has been solid through the first nine games of his career, especially considering high degree of difficulty on many of his attempts. His versatile scoring ability has been on full display, with no shortage of jaw-dropping highlights. There isn’t a shot on the floor he isn’t capable of making, and there is not another 2025 prospect with his unique skillset. Below are his stats through his first nine games of the season:

17.9 PTS, 7.1 REB (team-high), 0.6 AST, 46.7% FG, 35.1 3P% (13-37), 0.8 BLK, 1.1 STL, 2.4 TOPG, 33.9 MIN

Bailey’s shot-selection highlights his immense talent and confidence as a player. Many of his current habits can be attributed to his time at McEachern (HS) and Athletes of Tomorrow (AAU), where he rarely faced opponents capable of matching up with him. During his prep years, Bailey ran the offense as the primary ball-handler, which allowed him to dominate but also fostered habits that will take time to adjust at the college level. This isn’t a knock on Ace for playing for a public high-school or an independent AAU, because playing in that environment allowed him to foster his complete skillset.

Specifically, Bailey often fades away from the basket when he doesn’t need to and he struggles to make skip passes when defenses collapse on him. He hasn’t proven he can make the right reads consistently, which this is leading to shots with multiple defenders on him. Bailey has also been turnover-prone, coughing up the ball 15 times over the last four games.

Ace Bailey’s highlights from Rutgers’ win over Seton Hall.

Despite these flaws, Bailey’s overall production as a freshman has been impressive. If you exclude his two worst shooting performances of the year—against Kennesaw State and Notre Dame— Bailey is shooting over 50% from the field. He has also recorded three double-doubles, and tallied 20 or more points in four games this season. These are numbers that are remarkable for a freshman, especially considering Rutgers’ challenging early-season schedule. Most importantly, Rutgers is winning against high-level opponents, including a buzzer-beating win over. Big East squad Seton Hall.

Bailey’s shot-chart through nine games. Attached below.